← Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/11/2024
Water AlliesTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/11/2024
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 15.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Neos | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Water Tonoris | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Sentry | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Into the Fray | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Round | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hypothermia | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Invigorated Slash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |